Confirmed previous forecast
0.451676
Relative Brier Score
23
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Future Bowl
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+2%)
Less than $4.60
0%
(-2%)
More than or equal to $4.60 but less than $4.80
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $4.80 but less than $5.00
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $5.00 but less than $5.20
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $5.20
The trend keeps going down. RN it's 4.1.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+10%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
done some preliminary basic research: there is around a month-long interval between the scandal revolving around the "old Bing" in Feb to the eventual rollout of the new Bing (not to the public but to the ppl in the waitlist) in March. The trend seems more likely than ever that it will be available to the public before 30th April.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Bing may take more caution in releasing it to the public, but i highly doubt so (chatGPT continuing to pump out different versions)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Less than 20
98%
(+3%)
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
2%
(0%)
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 50
24 rn.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Japan
0%
South Korea
0%
Any other country not listed
only a short time left.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+7%)
Less than $4.60
2%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $4.60 but less than $4.80
0%
(-6%)
More than or equal to $4.80 but less than $5.00
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $5.00 but less than $5.20
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $5.20
The trend is going down: 4.128 in March 27th
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
updating: time
Files