When you drop in ranking due to a single inaccurate forecast (as happens to everyone sooner or later!), what can you learn from these moments?

Last fall, the U.S. announced new export controls preventing the sale of certain advanced chips to China—along with the software and machinery required to make them. This is intended to maximize U.S. technological advantage over China. But will the controls work, and will U.S. allies join the effort? 

INFER is pleased to announce a collaboration with Cosmic Bazaar, the crowdsourced forecasting program run by the UK’s Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment (PHIA).

See who made the Best of 2022 and help us recognize their outstanding contributions.

Crowd forecasting allows you to get signals about events before they happen. We're making it even easier to be alerted to important signals by introducing crowd forecast change alerts – which notify you of sudden shifts in the consensus forecast.

As the inaugural season of INFER comes to an end, we wanted to take a moment to reflect on some of our accomplishments as a community, our lessons learned, and also give you a glimpse of new initiatives we’re excited to share with you in 2023. 

INFER is pleased to announce that the Pro Forecaster Program will continue into the 2023 season. Up to 100 Pro Forecasters (“Pros”) are being selected for the program, which includes monthly payment for dedicated forecasting and exclusive training and events.

INFER launched new questions asking about advancements in quantum computing as part of the Global AI Race topic. This post explains why we chose those questions and what the answers suggest about the future direction of AI.

In our first blog series on cognitive biases, we dive into confirmation bias: what is it, and how can we avoid it in our forecasts?

Making your first forecast? This guide will provide steps and example prompts that you can use to approach any forecast question for the first time.

What did EA student groups from universities across the globe learn during INFER's first forecasting tournament? The winning team, many of whom were first-time forecasters, share their thoughts!

A new batch of questions has launched in our latest topic, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector. This post discusses why we chose those questions and what the answers suggest about the direction the field is headed in.

With the launch of the new topic, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector, we’ve put together this Topic Brief filled with resources to help you make your forecasts.

The first set of questions just launched in the new topic, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector. This post explains why we selected those questions and what they help to signal about the future of the field.

INFER has launched a new topic area on synthetic biology to assess how this field will transform U.S. competitiveness and increase national security in the energy sector.

In this edition of "Thoughts from a Pro," we caught up with a Pro who submitted the recently-closed PHEIC question, Alex Demarsh!

Why were we, as a crowd, trending in the wrong direction on this question? Granted, with a 30% chance of occurring, it’s going to happen three out of ten times, but why wasn’t our forecast higher? 

Take a look at the development team's new features to improve your forecasting!

Meet Dawna Coutant and Ryan Beck, our community mentors!  You may have seen notes and comments on our discussion boards from these two Pro Forecasters aimed to help you in your own forecasting. Get to know them, how they approach forecasting, and their advice for honing your skills. 

An introduction to the global artificial intelligence (AI) competition as a starting point for your forecasting.

Fern answers a question concerning the ambiguity of language and explains why INFER uses numerical probabilities instead.

A basic introduction to the field of microelectronics as a starting point for your forecasting.

This week, we released questions on AI patent development and scientific publications.