There is no incentive for Iran to take such an action, so why would they do it. Such a move would put Iran on a path toward normalization of relations with the rest of the world and the US. The Iranian theocracy would never survive that, and they know it.
-0.412913
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Decoding Disinformation,
Future Bowl,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
2%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Things happen!
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Microsoft and Adobe are jointly leading the industry-wide effort to make this happen. They claim there is no profit motive and their goal is to limit the ability of propagandists to deceive. Thus, I feel this will not be delivered until the 2024 General Election season is upon us.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
It is not in the interest of either party to have such a pause.
Why might you be wrong?
Pigs may fly, but only on the rarest of occasions. There will almost certainly be a pause, but it will not last 30 days, unless we want to call it a mostly peaceful pause. That could happen, but I would submit that any Hamas attack constitutes an end to the pause whether people want to admit it or not.