Confirmed previous forecast
0.006148
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Science & Technology,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
9%
(0%)
Georgia
15%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
3%
(0%)
Latvia
3%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-20%)
Kharkiv
4%
(-3%)
Kyiv
1%
(-1%)
Odesa
Recent events on the battlefield have made all of these eventualities even less likely. A major attack towards Kharkiv is still plausible but not likely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
86%
Yes
14%
No
He's already been through the crucible and clearly has the ability and desire to maintain power even while being blamed for so much suffering in the country. He's not likely to go anywhere in the next seven months.
Files
Comment deleted on May 14, 2024 06:30PM UTC
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 10, 2024 11:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
65%
Yes
May 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2024
35%
No
May 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2024
It would be nothing new, and the Hamas conflict makes it even more likely than in more normal times.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
The trend with planet discovery tends to be exponential.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Recent attacks on Kyiv just haven't yielded this number of casualties. Russia has the capacity to cause this number of casualties, but I see little reason for them to attempt a slaughter in Kyiv by June 1. They would go after Kharkiv first.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe Putin wants blood.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Moldova
1%
Armenia
9%
Georgia
15%
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Moldova only possible if Ukraine falls first. Armenia doesn't make much sense, lacks the usual "protecting ethnic Russians" cassus beli, and Armenia is historically friendly to Russia though less so now. Just seems unwise to attack them. Georgia maybe, but I think they're already happy with the situation there. Northern Kazakhstan quite possible due to resources, Russian speaking population, and influence from China that Russia might not like. But they're unlikely to attempt this until they can finish licking their wounds from Ukraine, even if they win there.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A lot of it hangs on how the war in Ukraine proceeds. If it proceeds better for Russia than I think likely, it increases the chance of Russia attacking these other nations. Especially if Russia fully occupies Ukraine, the probability of Moldova being attacked increases significantly. Ukraine fully falling is more or less a prerequisite for an attack on Moldova.
Files