geoffodlum

Dropping slightly to 22% I'm looking a several overlapping drivers:

Current Negotiation Stalemate: Recent efforts toward a ceasefire have encountered significant obstacles. While Ukraine accepted a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire, Russia rejected it, citing unmet demands such as the lifting of Western sanctions and Ukraine's non-NATO status. 

Continued Hostilities: Despite ongoing diplomatic engagements, both nations have persisted in military operations, including a devastating Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih that resulted in 19 civilian casualties including 9 children.  Active fighting -- and Russian war crimes against the Ukrainian civilian population -- continue unabated.

Incompatible Strategic Objectives: Russia's insistence on conditions such as Ukraine's demilitarization, recognition of territorial annexations, and a permanent ban on Ukrainian membership in NATO are unacceptable to the government and people of Ukraine. Ukraine’s demands for complete Russian troop withdrawal and full restoration of its territorial integrity are equally unacceptable to Russia.

The substantial gaps between the parties' positions, the continuation of active hostilities,, Russia’s belief that it has a decisive military advantage for the next 6-8 months, and the resolution terms (i.e., it cannot be a temporary, localized, or partial ceasefire) suggest that a full, national ceasefire before October 1, 2025, is possible but not close to probable.

I'm upping my forecast slightly to 12%, in anticipation of the volatility that will result from Trump's April 2 announcement of global tarriffs.  It's still unclear whether Trump plans to levy individual tariff rates on all US trading partners; put tariffs on only some countries; or apply a universal tariff (perhaps as high as 20%) on all imports.  A 20% universal tariff combined with full retaliation from other nations on US goods would be a “worst-case scenario” for the US economy.  But whatever the scope, both Apple and NVIDIA will be negatiovely impacted. Which one will be more so?

1.  I think Apple's extensive reliance on Chinese manufacturing makes it more immediately vulnerable to tariffs on Chinese imports. The complexity and scale of Apple's supply chain mean that shifting production is a formidable task, potentially leading to higher consumer prices or squeezed profit margins in the short term.​

2. NVIDIA, while also affected by tariffs, appears to be taking aggressive steps to localize production and reduce exposure to international trade disputes. Its significant investments in U.S. manufacturing could mitigate some tariff impacts over time.​

3.  Thus, I think in the short term Apple may be more negatively impacted by across-the-board U.S. tariffs on China and the EU due to its deep-rooted manufacturing ties with China and the challenges associated with rapidly altering its supply chain. NVIDIA's strategic investments in domestic manufacturing may position it to better navigate and potentially lessen the adverse effects of such tariffs in the longer term. As a result I am slightly raising my forecast to 12% that NVIDIA would overtake Apple in Market Cap as of 5/231/25.  I may readjust after I see the scope of Trump's tarrifs tomorrow.

I am going considerably against conventional wisdom, and raising my forecast from 40% to 55%.  CSIS issued a report today confiming what I have been suggesting in my previous forecasts: 

"Russia is conducting an escalating and violent campaign of sabotage and subversion against European and U.S. targets in Europe led by Russian military intelligence (the GRU), according to a new CSIS database of Russian activity. The number of Russian attacks nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024. Russia’s primary targets have included transportation, government, critical infrastructure, and industry, and its main weapons and tactics have included explosives, blunt or edged instruments (such as anchors), and electronic attack. Despite the increase in Russian attacks, Western countries have not developed an effective strategy to counter these attacks."

"The CSIS database included incidents where Russian cyber or electronic warfare attacks had an observable physical effect. These types of attacks are designed to disrupt critical infrastructure, such as power grids, water systems, and transportation networks that can lead to power outages, disruptions, or physical harm.

The CSIS report continues: 

"The most significant finding from the data is that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 (12 attacks) and 2024 (34 attacks), after quadrupling between 2022 (3 attacks) and 2023. As noted in more detail below, Russian agencies orchestrated attacks in 2024 against a wide range of targets, from critical infrastructure to transportation targets, using a variety of weapons and tactics, from explosives to blunt or edged weapons such as anchors."

"Russian agencies utilized electronic attack and cyber operations with physical effects against transportation targets. Estonia, Finland, Lithuania, Norway, and Poland all reported specific incidents of deliberate GPS signal jamming from Russia, which led to navigation errors, flight deviations, and communication breakdowns—endangering the lives of those on board. Several countries, such as Poland, also reported cyberattacks against transportation targets, such as rail lines. More broadly, Russian-linked actors conducted hundreds of cyberattacks against targets in Europe, the United States, and other regions to collect intelligence, deface websites, orchestrate a denial of service, and occasionally conduct sabotage, according to a broader CSIS database of cyber incidents between 2006 and 2025 where losses were greater than a million dollars."

“This is an important tool that the Russians are using in coordination with their conventional war in Ukraine,” said Seth G. Jones, the author of the study and a former adviser to the U.S. military. “It makes very little sense now for Russia to push troops across the border to the Baltic States or Finland. But their payback for these countries that are providing weapons is going after their companies, assassination plots against officials and threatening critical infrastructure.”

Bottom line: The CSIS report confirms Russian cyberr attacks against NATO member state energy or transportation infrastructure since the beginning of this question period.  It confirms that Russian physical sabotage efforts against NATO member state infrastucture have had a kinetic effect.  It does not confirm that all of the elements required for positive resolution occured in the same attack (cyber + kinetic effect). But given Russia's very active, ongoing campaign of sabotage of NATO infrastructure, including with offensive cyber tools, and given that we still have 13 months remaining in this question's resolution period, I believe there is a much higher than 50% chance of a future kinetic cyber attack against NATO energy or transporation infrastructure.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-shadow-war-against-west#h2-the-issue